Saturday, September 24, 2011

The ECB left rates at 1% per annum, as expected

The European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday kept the base interest rate of 1% per annum, the minimum value of the history of the ECB since 1999. This coincided with the expectations of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The last time the ECB changed its bid May 7, 2009 - then it was reduced by 0.25 percentage point to 1% per annum. The traditional press conference of the European Central Bank head Jean-Claude Trichet will be held at 16:30. Experts expect it comments on the position of the ECB in respect of increasing inflationary pressures on the background of the weak pace of economic recovery in the region. "We continue to expect a cycle start tightening monetary policy only towards the end of the year - said the chief economist at UniCredit Bank AG in the eurozone Marco Valli. - At the same time, the ECB wants to sound threatening now to prevent the growth of inflationary expectations - the worst nightmare of the ECB . Many economists note that the European Central Bank, whose rate is at least its history since 1999, has become increasingly difficult to make a decision on an extension to provide crisis management support through the provision of cheap liquidity amid an unexpected acceleration in inflation. On Wednesday it became known that the growth rate of producer prices in the euro area in December accelerated to a maximum of two years. According to the Statistical Office of the European Union, producer prices in the euro zone rose in the last month of 2010 by 0,8% compared to November, when the rate increase was 0,3%. In annual terms, prices rose by 5.3% - the maximum increase since October 2008. Experts polled by Bloomberg, expected to increase performance by 0,7% and 5,2% respectively. Consumer price growth in the eurozone in January, also accelerated, as indicated by preliminary data Statupravleniya EU, published on Monday. According to preliminary estimates, inflation last month was 2.4% year on year - with up to October 2008, compared with 2.2% a month earlier. Analysts had expected acceleration in inflation to 2.3%. Inflation in January 2011, the second consecutive year has exceeded the threshold set by the ECB rise in consumer prices, previously designated as "below but very close to 2%." Price growth remained below the threshold of the ECB since 2008. Thus, January's data on consumer prices highlighted the risk of increasing inflationary pressures in the most economically developed countries in the eurozone, such as Germany and France, while to overcome the recession and stagnation in the peripheral countries is necessary to keep key rate at record low levels. Last week Jean-K.Trishe declared readiness of the European Central Bank to "do everything necessary" to maintain price stability in the region. According to the forecast of the ECB, inflation in the region in 2011 will average 1.8% in 2012 - 1,5%. According to the consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, the first increase the base interest rate the ECB can be expected only at the end of the fourth quarter of 2011. At the same time, some experts believe that in the case of favorable developments recovery rates can start as early as June this year. The worst scenario is to maintain rates at current levels until the end of the first quarter of 2012. For comparison: The U.S. Federal Reserve holds rates in the target range of zero to 0.25% per annum from December 2008. In early October 2010, the Bank of Japan held a regular decrease - from 0.1% to the range of 0-0,1% per annum, the rate of the Bank of England is 0.5% APR. On materials the Interfax-Ukraine

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