Author: Yuri deaf since January 1, 2011 Ukrainian commercial banks have the right again to lend foreign currency to individuals. The fact that the ban on the issuance of loans in foreign currency, as contained in the June 2009 anti-crisis laws № 1533-VI «On measures for overcoming the financial crisis in Ukraine, valid only until the end of 2010. The opinions of experts and officials on whether to resume foreign exchange lending vary. Many bankers are in favor of the resumption of the possibility of granting loans in foreign currency. "I have no doubt that the credit products in the currency will appear in the arsenal of any and all banks. Over-saturated market of foreign exchange resources and place them in the credits would many banks ", - considers, for example, the chairman of the supervisory board of bank" National Credit Andrew Onistrat. In the first place, will start issuing foreign currency loans banks with foreign capital, because they have better access to external resources - suggests other financiers. Indeed, the banks now is a big problem. The volume of bank deposits in foreign currency amounts to 1 January 2011 16 315.5 million. According to him regularly required to pay interest, but the corporate lending by banks is still limited because of their unreliability, and foreign currency loans to individuals for a long time to give it was impossible. Under such conditions, many banks actually have suffered on borrowed in foreign currency deposits of the population. However, there are experts who do not want to resume lending in foreign currency, assuming the presence of high risks in such operations. So, are categorically against foreign currency lending are the leaders of the Association of Ukrainian Banks and National Bank. In particular, it considers relevant limitation on the issuance of foreign currency loans to natural persons new head of the National Bank of Ukraine Sergey Arbuzov. "In order to neutralize threats to economic security in the banking sector relating to, inter alia, with the accumulation of external and domestic debt in foreign currency by banks and their customers, it is advisable to install on an ongoing basis in law a ban on financial institution to the consumer of foreign currency loans to natural persons, - clearly he said late last year. In this regard, Mr Arbuzov looked forward to the Verkhovna Rada in the near future bill number 7351 on the protection of the rights of creditors and consumers of financial services, providing for a ban on consumer lending in foreign currency on the territory of Ukraine on a permanent basis. However, he said, given the lack of time, can be considered as an interim solution: an extension of the relevant provisions of the Law № 1533 for another five years - until January 1, 2016. So who's right: those who advocate the resumption of foreign currency lending, or opponents of loans in foreign currency? To answer this question, we must remember the "history" of the problem and look at current trends in the Ukrainian economy. Thus, the semi-loans in grivna, but with reference to the dollar, some banks began to issue long ago. However, it was a small scale - up until in 2004 the then head of the NBU Tihipko did not give formal permission for foreign currency lending to individual persons. It was a very big mistake, which caused huge problems later like many borrowers and banks alike. Incidentally, the first deputy head of the National Bank, and then even for a while acting chapter was in 2004 Yatsenyuk. If he did not mind against monetary credit of the population, therefore on him as responsible for the extremely dangerous decision of NBU. Following this resolution of the National Bank Ukrainians began to actively draw large and long-term loans in foreign currency, interest rates on which were about two times lower than the hryvnia loans - for purchase of housing, land, cars, etc. And all of them, who took over the 2004-2008 currency loans for a period of 5.3 years and more strongly affected by the collapse of the hryvnia in late 2008. However, many could not then serve and repay the loans, resulting in big problems began as the banks. However, to blame for this situation not only referred to former heads of NBU and Tigipko Yatsenyuk. Significant fault also lies with their successors Stelmakh. If in 2004, when the leadership of the National Bank has been given permission to currency crediting of physical persons, foreign trade balance was positive in Ukraine and therefore had no reason to fear the devaluation of the currency at least in the short term, starting in 2005, the situation has radically changed. According to the results of 2005, imports outpaced exports, and in subsequent years, the negative foreign trade balance has been growing rapidly - and that assumed in conditions of high inflation in the country, but a stable exchange rate of hryvnia to the dollar (and, especially, the revaluation in 2005 and 2008). As if in Ukraine during 2004-2008, inflation was 10-22%, while in the U.S. and the eurozone countries did not exceed 2-3% annually. In this connection, the competitiveness of Ukrainian goods every year rapidly declined, and imports are increasingly zapolonyal shelves Ukrainian stores. In particular, the negative balance of foreign trade in 2005 amounted to 1.9 billion dollars in the 2002nd - 6,7 billion dollars, in the 2007th - 11,4 billion dollars, in the 2008th - 18,6 billion dollars (and, it would be even greater if not for the collapse of the hryvnia in late 2008). Head of NBU Volodymyr Stelmakh had to see this disturbing trend, which means that sooner or later, the national currency will fall. And so he had to not only conduct harmful to the domestic economy revaluation of the hryvnia in 2005 and 2008, but also prohibit currency crediting of physical persons - even in 2005-2006. However, Stelmach did not. After a strong devaluation of the hryvnia in 2008, and in connection with the global crisis, the situation in the Ukrainian economy has changed significantly: not only reduced export volumes, but still significant - import. However, this did not last long, once in 2009 and 2010, the hryvnia strengthened against the dollar efforts of the National Bank. As a consequence, imports again began to grow quickly - at a rate outstripping the pace of export growth. Especially, these processes have intensified since August 2010. According to recent data of Goskomstat, the negative balance of foreign trade from January to November last year reached 7,958 million U.S. That is, in Ukraine, in fact, is now observed in this perspective, repetition of the processes observed in the pre-crisis years. And this - especially given the fact that in the next few years Ukraine will return as large amounts of foreign loans - means that the preservation of the exchange rate at the current level of about 8 UAH / USD. over a long period is impossible. In the future devaluation of the hryvnia only expects, moreover, the longer the National Bank will retain the current rate, the stronger will then collapse of the currency. For example, a former economy minister Lanovyi predicts that the collapse of the hryvnia will happen in 2012. But its collapse may start much earlier. It's enough to push any, both external and internal. Hryvnia fall could very much. Calculations show that the optimum for the Ukrainian economy would be the exchange rate at the level of 10,5-11 UAH / USD. - It is in the summer of last year. At present, this figure will be higher. Assurances of the same governments that until the end of 2011 the hryvnia exchange rate will hold at the present values ??can not be taken seriously. Just remember how back in July 2008, few experts would suggest that in September the local currency will devalue, and in December dropped by half. Although if reserves NBU have reached over 38 billion dollars, up from 4 billion more than now. Therefore, returning to the issue of foreign currency lending, it can be said that in no case can resume issuing loans in foreign currency. And Ukrainians still recommend to forget all about foreign currency loans, if they do not want then is very much upset. Source: uriy-gluhov.blogspot.com
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