What's the problem? The problem of "shadow wage" is very painful for Ukraine. In circumstances where more than half of GDP is produced in the "shadow" payroll "in the envelope" has already become an established tradition. Moreover, any slogans and calls to change this vicious practice does not bring the desired results. Although, in fairness, it should be noted that before the crisis, the share of "shadow wage" was significantly lower than today. The crisis has forced many business structures in order to survive to abandon the "white" wages, or at least reduce its stake in favor of a "shadow". This week Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Tigipko presented a package of bills that, on a plan the government should bring to "light" earnings of Ukrainians. Suggested methods of "bleaching" is sufficiently ambiguous and led to intense debate among experts, members and employers. Will try a more detailed analysis of the proposals to combat the "shadow" wage - the introduction of indicative wages. The Government proposes to introduce a scale of minimum wages to 8 categories. According to organizers, this will make the company, "whiten" the wages, as in the case of payment of wages below a preset level, the State Tax Service of Ukraine will be entitled to further verify this company and impose a fine on manual, and the enterprise itself. The method can be quite effective, as is likely for the company will be quite expensive not to comply with the requirements for minimum wage. How can a state budget due to "bleaching" of wages by the end of 2010, total gross wages and salaries amounted to almost 460 billion UAH. If we assume that a "shadow" is about 40% of salary, we can expect that the total amount of wages up to 2011 will amount to about 600 bln. This will increase the flow in the state budget income tax on $ 21 bln. In addition, the Pension Fund may receive an additional 45 billion USD to help solve the problem of shortage of fund. At first glance, this seems all very simple and correct. Increasing the size of the white wage "will significantly increase revenue generation in the state budget and pension fund, and thus solve the problem with the current deficit. But all this - the theoretical calculations, and remember that practice and the economy of Ukraine makes its own adjustments, and a simple mathematical division and addition to solve problems with a "shadow" wages will not work. What really would happen if forced to "whiten" the wages All calculations related to "bleaching" of wages based on the mistaken belief that the business has money that he can safely send to the increase in payments to the state budget. In reality, this money is not and can not be. Business can not afford to pay higher "white" salary only through higher prices for their products and services. At present, the rise in prices that has occurred in Ukraine since the beginning of the year, largely due to the introduction of the Tax Code. Even according to official statistics, inflation since the beginning of the year amounted to 3,3%. At the same time we remember the views of experts that officialdom, to put it mildly, a real increase in prices does not show. And if we further increase the tax burden on business, then inflation will accelerate even more. Official inflation is at a level of 12-13%, and an informal more than 20%. The current tax system requires the employer to UAH 1 "white salaries" to pay 60 cents tax. This is a very high tax burden, and some businesses simply can not carry her. As a result, it will lead to an increase in unemployment ... At a time when European countries in 2009-2010 riots shook the unemployed, Ukraine without these disasters. It is no secret that much of Ukraine was able to avoid the "unemployed riots" by edinonalozhnikami and "shadow payroll." Very few people noticed that throughout 2010 the official unemployment rate in Ukraine decreased from month to month and in February 2011 has increased. This is also largely due to the entry into force of the Tax Code. With all the skill you can not raise prices for their products indefinitely, so if you increase the tax burden easier to close the business and lay off workers than to carry continuous losses. Now the number of unemployed actually grow, because the majority of small and medium-sized businesses ruined, unable at first to pay huge taxes on profits, and now the additional taxes and wages. And the problem of unemployment in Ukraine will become a great and urgent social problem that will solve all the same to the Government. According to ILO data, inflation in Ukraine at the end of 2010 amounted to 8,8%. Under the new "white" wages according to the method of ILO unemployment will not be below 16%. By the way, the country already has sufficient experience in the neutralization of the government efforts both to reduce the "shadow", and to increase the tax burden. Since 2009, when the country began to rapidly increase the minimum wage, employers began to actively use the "part-time work." It's simple: the employees of the enterprise "voluntary-compulsory" write a statement saying that they are working part-time and earning wages as a part-time, but in reality, the employee works full-time. Thus, employers economize on wages. In conditions of forced mass "bleaching" of wages, these methods are "saving" may become more widespread. Ultimately, the "shadow" wages simply altered, but hardly disappear. With the manic despair of business is trying to convey to the authorities the idea that you can not solve the problem of "shadow wage" only by the whip, do not provide normal conditions for the normal development of business in the country. In any case, the authorities are trying to repressive methods "doge" business will have the most dire consequences for the Ukrainian economy as a whole. You should not delude ourselves that mass destruction of small businesses would be offset by increased large. For his development of multibillion dollar investments are needed, which this year, no one expects. In addition, big business is even more vulnerable to an increase in the size of the "white" wages than small ones. Perhaps the campaign to force the "whitening" (rather than promote the work of the "light") power itself provokes the combined opposition as small and large businesses. And with sympathetic support of all other social groups.
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