Experts attribute the decline in dollarization of the economy with the features of the methodology of the NBU in the calculation of this indicator

The National Bank noted the positive trend in reducing the level of dollarization of the national economy for 2010 from 31.68% to 29.13%. This trend in the report NBU associated with the stable operation of the currency market and the improvement of the situation in the real economy, which reduced the devaluation expectations of business and population. However, experts have attributed the positive trend in the merits of the methodology of calculation of the NBU, and not any other factors. After all, the NBU in the calculation of the level of dollarization of the economy focuses primarily on the ratio of currency and hryvnia deposits in the banking system. "National Bank of Ukraine estimates the ratio of currency and hryvnia deposits, and thus it is assumed that the same relationship will be between cash dollars and UAH", - explains economist at the International Centre for Policy Studies, Alexander Acorn. If we take into account only the structure of bank deposits, then formally NBU is right. Indeed, in 2010, actually had all the prerequisites for reducing the share of foreign currency in bank savings. Restructuring of foreign currency loans in the hryvnia, the lack of lending in foreign currency, high interest rates of hryvnia deposits in comparison with foreign exchange helped to reduce the share of foreign currency deposits in the structure of banks' deposit base, "- says Irina Piontkovskaya, an economist at Troika Dialog Ukraine. Following this methodology, we can assume and the strengthening of this trend in 2011: rates on foreign currency deposits are unlikely to grow, and the NBU yet shown a willingness to keep the hryvnia exchange rate in the expected range. "Given that in 2011 the course will remain relatively stable, and the NBU confirms its intention to avoid sharp exchange rate fluctuations, the level of dollarization may continue to decrease", - said Head of the analysis of financial markets, ING Bank (Ukraine) Alexander Pecherytsyn. Although, if we go beyond the calculations of the NBU, the subordination of the Ukrainian economy dollar and other freely convertible currency as long as unchangeable. For example, to specify the virtual absence of a positive trend can be extended Monetary excitement in the cash market, which took place in the fourth quarter of 2010, during the discussion and adoption of the Tax Code, private businessmen, fearing for their business, willing to transfer their funds into the currency and brought business in the shadow. "The volume of currency sold by the population in 2010 to $ 9.7 billion exceeds the volume of foreign exchange purchased by banks from the population" - the director of the Institute of Society Transformation Oleg Soskin. And against the backdrop of deteriorating business conditions, he suggests, reduce the level of dollarization of the economy will be impossible and in 2011 I'm not sure in reducing the "green" dependency and executive director of the Center for Social and Economic Research CASE Ukraine Dmitry Boyarchuk. Despite the growth in GDP and a current stabilizing state finances, he says, knows how to behave in the second half of the current supportive to our borrowing by foreign investors. Oleg Sorochan Source material: Economic news