Probability of default in Ukraine exaggerated - expert

The probability of default on Ukrainian sovereign debt is exaggerated, in fact, in recent years tended to have lower concentrations. This point of view expressed in the comments UNIAN head of the analytical unit the group of companies, Investment Capital Ukraine »(ICU), Alexander Valchishen. "In 2011-12, we expect economic growth in the range of 4-5% per year and the gradual reduction of fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP by the end of 2012. Thus, the ratio of debt to GDP as one key indicator of the creditworthiness of the country should stabilize, "- said the expert. "If you compare the relative dynamics of CDS quotes, similar in economic status, since the beginning of 2010 and until today, Ukraine's rating as a borrower was the best on the dynamics of the entire sample of countries. That is the risk premium on the debt of Ukraine decreased as compared with similar economic status of countries. And those who have acquired sovereign Eurobonds Ukraine, won over a period of time than those who have purchased, such as Eurobonds Turkey or Romania, "- said the expert. According to Valchishena, to reduce the risk of default has a positive effect as the IMF program, under which Ukraine until the end of 2012 will receive credits worth 12 billion dollars in the case of economic reforms. "That's enough to smooth the shocks of trade or any disasters on the international capital market", - he said. Recall that Ukraine placed in the top 18 countries at risk of default. The corresponding list of such countries released the American edition Business Insider.