Wednesday, July 13, 2011

The ECB left interest rates at 1% per annum, as expected

The European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday kept the base interest rate unchanged at 1% per annum, the minimum value in the history of the ECB since 1999. This coincided with the expectations of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The last time the ECB changed its bid May 7, 2009 - then it was reduced by 0.25 percentage point to 1% per annum. The traditional press conference of the European Central Bank head Jean-Claude Trichet will be held at 16:30. As expected by experts, Jean-K.Trishe in his speech to toughen anti-inflation rhetoric. "Fighting inflation is a priority for the ECB - said economist ABN Amro in Amsterdam, Nick Kunis. - Substantial and long-lasting increase in oil prices may interrupt the economic recovery in the euro area, currently the bank's management attention is focused on keeping inflation under control." Consumer price growth in the euro area accelerated in February to 2.4% yoy compared to 2.3% in the previous month, preliminary data indicate the Statistical Office of the European Union. This rate exceeds the ECB's target level, designated as "below but very close to 2%, for three consecutive months. Investors are waiting for performances of Jean-K.Trishe, hoping to hear whether the bank plans to resume the folding of non-traditional measures to stimulate the economy. Earlier the head of the ECB has promised to maintain a program to provide liquidity to banks on an unrestricted basis for a week or three months during the first quarter of 2011. According to the consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, the first increase the base interest rate the ECB can be expected only at the end of the fourth quarter of 2011. At the same time, some experts believe that raising rates could begin as early as May of this year, a month ago, the earliest period was considered a possible rise in June. Worst-case scenario still provides for the retention rates at current levels until the end of the first quarter of 2012. On Thursday, Jean-K.Trishe also present a forecast of experts of the Central Bank regarding the pace of growth of the eurozone economy and inflation in the region. Earlier, the ECB council member Yves Mersham said that the ECB could raise the inflation forecast for 2011 to more than 2% from 1.8%. "We will probably see a significant change in inflation forecasts, especially this year - said a senior economist at ING Group in Brussels, Carsten Breeski. - At the same predictions are already out of date, given the recent rise in oil prices, which likely will not be counted in them. " On Tuesday the European Commission (EC) raised its forecast for eurozone growth this year at 0.1 percentage points - up 1.6%, also said that rising prices for energy and some raw materials will keep the inflation rate is higher than the ECB's limit. According to a new forecast of the EC, the increase in consumer prices in 17 countries in the eurozone in 2011 will average 2.2% vs expected 1.8% in November. On materials the Interfax-Ukraine

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