Despite the comic promise, that "before the crisis - will be just before the next crisis, the banking system is gradually emerging from the lethargy and is preparing to resume lending. However, prior to the real sector of money will not just because of the increasing demands of borrowers and the precariousness of businesses. But physical persons already fully qualify for regular unsecured refrigerator. Since January showed that the banking system still continues to experience excess liquidity, and the placement of funds in active operations have not kept pace with the attraction, experts predict a reduction in deposit rates on the market within the next two to three months. Of hryvnia deposits downward movement of 1% (up to 13-13,5%) and approximately 0.5% may lose their deposits in foreign currency (up to 6,5-7% for deposits in U.S. dollars and up to 5,5-6 % - EUR). The average length of resources, which generates today's banking system - eight or nine months. And as in recovering credit activity mainly need to create a resource base of urgency for a year and a half, and sometimes two, on the market now dominate the strategy of attracting, stimulating location for long periods. "The stakes are now working on literally bookish scenario - the longer the maturity, the higher rate", - said Ruslan Kravets, head of credit products to OTP Bank. Long deposits (365 days +) while still offering a lower percentage (than annual), which explains the reluctance to overpay. "The contract can be signed for six years and during this period, rates may fall by 3-5%, as can be, and all of 6-7%. In the time before, financial institutions are willing to take such risks, but at longer periods - no "- said Chairman of the Board of Unex Bank Andrei Yatsura. According to him, today there is no long-term loans, which could compensate for such fluctuations in the bank rates on deposits long. "Although the loans for cars and mortgages issued for five years and longer, but the average service period of the loan varies within 1-1,5 years" - he says. Now banks have virtually no tools for precise fixing the length of the portfolio, said Anton Shaperenkov, Director of Marketing Retail «VAB Bank. "Ironically, the funds from any deposit may take the very next day after posting", - complains expert. Surcharge for the trust expected ban on early termination of the deposit, according to experts, did not significantly affect the preferences of investors. Remain stable and the ratio of household deposits in local and foreign currency: the hryvnia deposit customers will receive higher interest rates and foreign exchange will give them a sense of protection from exchange rate fluctuations. "We have not felt any change in the attitudes of investors after the announcement of the initiative NBU. But to make any predictions before the regulator to decide on the detail, it is impossible ", - says Mr. Kravets. While the main issue is the confidence of a particular contributor to a particular bank. "A similar situation emerged after the crisis. Due to mistrust of the banking system customers to place money in a month, there were even ten-day deposits to "check" each other. Now customers are quite willing to appear on all year and a half at a good rate "- recalls Mr. Yatsura. In the case of entry restrictions on early withdrawal of deposits you can expect a significant increase in rates on long contributions. At least in the early months. "The events in the banking system in crisis, forced the population sufficiently skeptical to all sorts of administrative interventions, limiting their freedom to dispose of their own contributions. So the market is likely to react to instantaneous demand skewed toward the short deposits. To restore the balance of the banks will go on creating more favorable conditions for investors willing to entrust their money to financial institutions for a longer period ", - said Greg Krasnov, CEO of Platinum Bank. In addition, some banks will certainly be raising rates and offering new products. It would be desirable and pricked parallel financial institution will try again to deploy lending, but to behave in this area they will have a much more cautious. "Obviously, the best solution - it is an active lending. But in the still large share of defaults on loans banks have to tighten the requirements for the borrower and the lending conditions, "- said Ruslan Kravets. Most probably, banks will return to those segments where it is better served by credit obligations, and with the help of various activities for them to reduce interest rates. Popular enough to be the secondary market of housing loans and car loans. "If that car loan, then the machine is either used as a delivery vehicle for work, which provides a good salary, or as a means of income - a tool for preservation of existing income and multiply it. Such a borrower is always interesting to the bank ", - said Andrei Yatsura. Some players will work with the riskier groups of borrowers. Already seen that the second breath opens in consumer credit, including cash, and the competition between banks in this segment increased. If today's players in the consumer credit market - about ten, in the near future, expect to see a few more. "Perhaps, some banks will increase the number of the proposed amount of credit to make the product more attractive. Those who can, will compete in speed of decision-making ", - predicts Anton Shaperenkov. With regard to a possible ban currency lending to households, it seems to be little concern about the bankers. Despite the fact that from January 1, Law № 1533 lost its force, banks refrain from stimulating demand for this product. In the first place - because of stringent requirements for the formation of reserves for foreign currency loans (which are higher than the hryvnia .- Auto.) Banks do not have to be able to offer cheap loans market, and secondly, is not ready to resume foreign exchange lending itself market, generating demand - a mass consumer fears while taking debt in foreign currency. Borrowers are in short supply, however the real economy to resume lending to banks in no hurry. According to Jacques Mounier, chairman of the Bank of Credit Agricole, bank lending to corporations as well based on trust, as well as investing money in the bank by depositors. "Banks must have confidence in the system and the business environment in which they operate. But so far, and they and many of their corporate clients do not feel better in the system of which they are "- said the banker. During the crisis, many corporate borrowers' credit history was marred by which bankers today have begun to pay attention. Have the corporate segment and other obstacles to obtaining credit. Someone is a lack of foreign exchange earnings, not allowing to take foreign currency credit, but at the same time, too high interest rates of hryvnia loans (where the stakes are often the same as the profitability of this business), tightening the requirements for collateral, depreciation of the collateral. "For those who managed to survive the crisis with flying colors, the banks will literally begin to chase" - says Andrew Yatsura. Olga GALICKI Source material: Economic news
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