Already, banks have started offering people loans at 0% APR credit cards are giving away" a gift " and improve the supply of consumer loans. According to the newspaper "Economic news, in absolute terms this year, consumer loans have become one of the fastest growing segments. At the moment, from all types of credit most popular among the customers enjoy credit and auto loans without collateral. Very demand remain cash loans and the purchase of household appliances. Rakes In many segments of the loan (lending networks of home appliances and electronics, for example) the proportion of credit sales have already reached a crisis level. Large banks also spoke on the renewal of a mortgage (compared to 2010) but the number of loans for housing in the month still ten times less than before the crisis. "Today begins a tendency pre-crisis resumption of the principles of consumer credit. The number of bank proposals on consumer credit, increasing the amount of credit reduces the effective rate", - commented on the financial Analyst Prostobank Consulting Natalia Kramar. At the same time, she said, banking institutions rather carefully evaluate the financial condition of the borrower and obtain a loan may be far from each. The risk of non-repayment of the loan for loans in cash and goods offset by higher rates on the loan. Thus, according to provided "i" information from experts, for the period from April 2010 to April 2011 the number of bank loans to secured loans has increased in 5,7 times, on the loan in cash - eight times the credit for the goods - in three times. During the same period, the average effective rate on the market has dropped significantly - by 8.6 percentage points on consumer loans secured (in UAH for five years); 8,8 p.p on cash loans (in UAH, period - one year). The maximum amount of credit bail today is 1,5 mln. (increased 7.5 times during the period from April 2010 to April 2011), and cash loans - 150 thousand . UAH. credit for products - 25 ths. "Also, four banks offer cash loan and two banks - the credit for the goods without the income statement (for credit requires the following documents: passport of Ukrainian citizen identification number). Most of the banks offer loans to both cash and credit cards ", - tells Natalia Kramar. Consumer loans to individuals, she says, today presented cash loans (for any purposes), credit for the purchase of goods and loans secured by real estate. Cash Loans (period - one year) issued eight banks out of the top 50, on bail (term - five years) - 18 banks for the goods (the term - one year) - Six banks. "At present, average effective interest rate on loans to bail is 20.62 % in UAH for five years. The cash loans - 64.44% to UAH for the life of the loan in one year. The credit for the goods the average effective rate is 72.72% in UAH for a loan for one year. The maximum term for loans Cash is five years for loans on bail - 10 years on loans for goods - three years ", - informs the analyst. At this point, she said, the active development of bank lending in cash and the provision of goods on credit due to the higher profitability of such loans, which at times can reach 60-80% per annum and above, and their greater availability due to the small amount of lending. According to the same director of consumer lending unit of Alfa-Bank (Ukraine) Marina Diitlov, consumer finance market in 2011 will grow at least 1,5 times (from $ 1 billion to $ 1.5 billion). And soon you will see the increased presence of banks at the points of existing customers. "Recently, indeed celebrated rather active recovery in consumer lending. While I believe that to get involved it currently is not: the level of solvency of the population decreased, while consumption falls "- warns the chairman of the Supervisory Board of Bank of National Credit Andrew Onistrat. According to his information, given a sufficiently high level of defaults on such loans, effective interest rates on the market at times reach 100 % per annum. The minimum bet is the same today about 55% per annum. Do not believe in the next nearest banking fiasco and senior analyst at Troika Dialog Ukraine Eugene Grebenyuk. In his view, although such a trend and can be traced, there are significant differences compared to pre-crisis situation . 'At least banks are more critical of the borrowers. The crisis has also significantly enlarged database unreliable borrowers, which also increases the banks' ability to reduce the risks for consumer loans, "- he argues." Besides the main problems in 2008 arose due to the significant growth of the dollar, respectively, and the amount of debt individuals in UAH equivalent significantly increased ", - adds the deputy chairman of the Unex-bank Alexander Bondarenko. And now, he says, the population rise to more sober attitude to their capabilities. A Banks, in turn, will not lend to insolvent clients, as it was before the crisis. However, according to economist IG "Art Capital" Oleg Ivantsov, worry about the consequences of rapid recovery potrebkreditovaniya still very early, because while we are talking about microcredit and short-term consumer credit. "Lending is gradually being restored, but before the full restoration of the credit system is still very far away. In many respects, banks are now easier to evaluate borrowers, as if the person had credit before, and regularly paid by him during the crisis, the likelihood that the period economic recovery will begin his problem is low enough "- he commented. According to the expert, at this time loans (UAH) suggest an average of under 20% and above, whereas the normal rate (based on the yield of government securities, and country risk) can be assume 12-15%. That is, even if rates are falling, but still very far from normal. And this is connected primarily with the fact that banks continue to lay the high level of return. "To be able to compete with credits Ukrainian companies abroad, the banks should be more strict about credit scoring, but the lower rates. Otherwise, we were again waiting for a wave of foreign currency loans, "- says Oleg Iwaniec. And ban the NBU, he said, will not help here, as Ukrainian companies will be to borrow directly abroad through a special company (SPV). By the same high rates have led to widespread credit purchases in installments, with most of the interest paid by the seller (stimulating the sale). But, despite this "relief" for the banks (in with good dropout crisis of insolvent clients), though the bank proposals are gaining momentum. Thus, the loan amounts for certain commodity groups significantly increased. Amounts of cash loans are also rising. Banks are generally run campaigns that offer different segments of customers attractive individual credit products, such as credit cards and cash. provided and different approaches to lending, such as personal interest rate, credit product, depending on the amount requested and the package of documents of the borrower. "Banks today need to increase profitability, which provokes many financial institutions to enhance the consumer banking lending. That is what gives the maximum profitability in today's environment can work, albeit with some adjustments, "- says the chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Bank of National Credit Andrew Onistrat. He said that increased level of defaults is covered by increasing interest rates. If the trend for bad debts in this segment will be reduced, then the rate will decrease. ... The president will go the right bank Renaissance Capital sees Sebastian Ruban of Ukraine in 2011 are three possible ways of development lending: improper loans, credit cards and lending. Thus, improper loans, he said, currently has 13 banks. average market rate for the last year (period: March 2010 - March 2011) declined by 16 percentage points - from 68% to 52%. " Excess liquidity has led to the fact that a number of banks is planning to develop this year's consumer lending. If conditions remain stable economic situation in Ukraine in 2011, new players emerge. But they will not be much since the promotion of inappropriate lending without collateral and guarantors in Ukraine requires a deep examination of risk policy "- Sebastian explains Ruban. In the segment of credit card banker observes a gradual increase in the number of issuing banks, as well as consumers of this product." Currently, credit card market has not yet reached saturation, which provides plenty of opportunities for Release of new players and increase lending to existing ones. Until the end of 2011 the possibility of gradually lowering interest rates, as new players in the market and competition ", - he said. These credit cards, according to his information, the market is actively propose no more than ten banks. Interest rates in general have not changed, but perhaps revised by individual banks for different customer segments. In the market average effective rate varies from 35-45%. "More and more banks are returned or are new to the market lending. Loans goods is not as risky as the cash and, therefore, it is easier and faster to implement the business processes of the bank ", - said Sebastian Ruban. In addition, according to a banker, directed lending provides high-quality base of potential borrowers for on-lending. Among the trends the target credit, he notes the growth of the number of credit points in a relatively small stores and small retailers, as well as the emergence of credit in the grocery store, networks for the sale of clothing and footwear, whereas before the crisis, banks were mostly focused on lending to household appliances to large retail chains . The car is red, car overseas ... "2011 will be marked by the fact that the banks will work with all segments of customers. It all depends on the bank's strategy. Thus, large, universal banks are planning to develop proposals of various loan products" - says Marina Diitlov. But while financial institutions are willing to lend only short-term projects that do something bad for the economy. After all, long-term projects leading to economic development. "This is primarily due to the high long-term uncertainty in the foreign exchange market. If the stability of the hryvnia in 2011-2012, the sure, most experts and market players, then for a period of 5-10 years there is no confidence at all "- shares his views Oleg Iwaniec. According to experts, for most banks increasing market share today has lost the priority, instead, is much more important to have reliable borrowers and yield from banking operations. And judging by the pace of recovery, auto loans have become the most profitable and secure segment for lending. "Everything is predictable, the situation with the pledge is clear and not burdened by any law on social protection, the price of the machine are stable and are not subject to speculation. The second priority in 2011 for banks, I would call lending through credit cards, from binding to the salary projects ", - said Yevgeny Grebenyuk. And as a last resort, he said, banks will develop a mortgage. After all, for its revitalization efforts alone are not enough banks and necessary structural reforms in the country as a whole. "The first retail auto lending has been restored, is now being actively restored Banking consumer lending. is premature to talk about the restoration of the mortgage because the pull-down trend in property prices", - supports colleagues Andrew Onistrat. In addition, According to him, this segment was the most problematic in terms of volume of no return in the crisis, making it currently is not too attractive for banks. Rationale for future revenue and net borrower's credit history will remain the basic requirements for obtaining credit. At the same time the formal requirements for borrowers According to experts, will be approximately such as before the crisis, and all banks, as a rule, they will be the same type. And though the special conditions not expected, according to Yevgeny Grebenyuk, consideration will only accept white income. "Banks are gradually reducing the requirements for borrowers and increase the maximum amount of credit that is due to release of new players, and stable performance of already granted loans. This trend was observed in the last year and will likely continue until the end of this "- suggests Sebastian Ruban. Banks, in his opinion, have learned lessons from the crisis, have revised and improved the risky policy, underwriting, working sewers, which positively affected the credit portfolios. "Requirements for borrowers will be more stringent than before the crisis. Most banks will not offer a zero down payment and the issuance of credit without confirmation of income of the borrower, - sticking to its point of view, Alexander Bondarenko. Ukraintsev accustom the hryvnia Despite the fact that the legal ban on credits in foreign currency withdrawn from January 1, loans in foreign currency continued to decline. "remain in force increased reserve requirements NBU on these loans that make them issuing meaningless. As far as possible to read the rhetoric of the new leadership of the NBU, the controller does not support a resumption of retail lending in foreign currency ", - said Yevgeny Grebenyuk. So, today, according to Natalia Kramar, only one bank issues a loan to bail in Russian rubles. And expect massive foreign currency lending, in her opinion, not worth it. "Banks will not be able to offer cheap personal loans because of stringent requirements for the formation of reserves for foreign currency loans, as the requirements for foreign currency loans is higher than in relation to the hryvnia" - says she said. Moreover, analysts say, banks do not have adequate tools for hedging currency risks that would not allow them to make foreign currency lending to massive natural persons. However, Andrew Onistrat admits that the retail foreign exchange lending in Ukraine can be lobbied by international financial institutions. What they say finsinoptiki? "In 2011, the effective interest rates on consumer loans may drop by 1-2 percentage points, while the number of banks, mortgage lenders for personal purposes, may increase by 20-30%", - predicts Natalia Kramar. Over time, the banks, she said, will gradually move to a floating rate on all loans with maturities of five years. Terms and development, experts say, consumer loans for the purchase of goods in 2011 would depend on the policies of trading networks, rather than from banks. At the same time significant changes, except for extension for up to two or three years, this year on such loans will not. "Interest rates on cash loans are unlikely to be subject to major changes, while the other parameters of credit can improve, for example , to increase the amount of the loan "- she said." Because deposit rates have stabilized, then significant changes in the lending market will likely not happen ", - predicts Alexander Bondarenko. Perhaps, according to a banker, there will be a small reduction in interest rates and an increase in the number of programs offered. Diitlov Marina expects to reduce the cost of credit only in the second half, when all the market players (retailers and banks) will prepare for the high season of sales. "The cost of credits in grivna will be reduced to 15-17%, with favorable market conditions - even below. In currency loans, except for corporate, simply will not "- demonstrates the confidence Oleg Iwaniec. In the opinion of Yevgeny Grebenyuk, lower rates on 1-1,5 percentage points in local and by 0,5 percentage points in dollars. Lesia Vygovskyy
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